At Procure Smart, we stay ahead so our clients never get caught out by market shifts. Solar PV remains a powerful investment for UK businesses, but 2026 brings significant pricing risks that deserve clear explanations and planning.
Let’s break down the changes, why they matter, and how to maximise value with early action supported by our expert team and turn-key renewables service.
The main change: China will remove VAT export rebates for PV from 1 April 2026
China’s Tax Administration have confirmed that VAT export rebates for PV products will be fully removed from 1 April 2026. This will increase export costs for manufacturers by 9% and is already pulling shipping into early 2026.
European distributors are already warning customers of 20 to 30 % module price rises as we move toward April, as suppliers adjust for the loss of rebates and upstream pressures.
Material costs are changing at the same time
Material pressures mean the VAT change is not the only change affecting 2026 pricing.
- Silver costs rose in late 2025. Silver paste accounts for up to 30% of total cell production costs, and recent price spikes have overtaken module price increases.
- Aluminium frames and glass have become dominant contributors to module costs. This remains a major pricing factor in 2026.
- Forward pricing shows volatility as buyers rush to secure supply before April, increasing price pressure in Q1 2026.
What our partner is seeing right now
Our partner, UK Greentech, confirms rising pressure:
- Wafer prices up by about 12%
- Solar cell prices up by over 10%
- Multiple manufacturers have already issued price increases
- By May 2026, panel prices could rise by more than 25%
These points are consistent with wider industry forecasts and reinforce the need to manage project timing carefully.
What this means for UK commercial solar projects
Rising module costs can extend payback periods and reduce the Internal Rate of Return. Solar remains a strong investment, particularly with volatile grid electricity prices, but assumptions from early 2025 may no longer stand.
Projects that remain in planning without a defined procurement path may face price jumps after April. Those that secure pricing earlier are better protected.
Manufacturers are prioritising shipments before the 1 April deadline. This increases the likelihood of longer lead times and limitations later in 2026.
Government policy, net zero commitments, and sector momentum continue to support solar growth. The UK’s Solar Roadmap and planning reforms signal long-term confidence, and solar remains a positive against unpredictable energy pricing.
How Procure Smart helps you manage 2026 solar market risk
Our entire service offering is built around what our customers need. That means fast, informed and transparent support driven by strong market knowledge.
1. Market knowledge you can act on
We continuously track supplier announcements, material trends, and policy changes like the China VAT rebate removal, so our customers get early guidance.
2. Timing and technical advice
We help you decide when to buy as well as what to buy. This means securing modules before April, where appropriate, or building realistic back-up plans for later procurement.
3. Transparent pricing conversations
If costs are affecting quotes, we show the data. This ensures you have full clarity on risks linked to silver, aluminium, and glass.
Speak with our expert team
Procure Smart is fast, accessible, transparent, and forward-thinking.
Our expert renewables team will help you:
- Understand the impact of 2026 pricing
- Build a realistic investment case
- Develop a procurement strategy that protects value
- Move quickly where needed or plan conservatively where timing cannot change
If solar is in your plans for 2026, we can guide you through the changing market with clarity and confidence.
